Jair van der Lijn, a senior researcher at the Dutch international policy think tank Clingendael, says policy makers have not sufficiently considered the possibilities of a disintegrated Sudan if the nation’s peace deal falls apart.
“Be prepared for what is going to happen if you will fail, and the chances are very large that you will fail. So be prepared for renewed war,” said Jair van der Lijn.
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed almost five years ago put a stop to the civil war that first started in 1955 and then re-erupted in 1983.
The North-South deal formed an interim coalition government jointly run by the South’s ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the North’s National Congress Party. National elections intended to lead to a new unified democratic Sudan were to be held in July 2009 but have been pushed back to April 2010.
The peace agreement also calls for a January 2011 Southern independence referendum to allow the South to secede if Southerners remain unsatisfied with a united Sudan. The South is largely expected to vote in favour of independence if given the opportunity.
The peaceful implementation of the peace deal ending in a unified Sudan is a highly unlikely scenario, according to Van der Lijn, despite the fact that it is the ideal situation being worked towards by many of the key international players.
Van der Lijn says that while war fatigue in the North will most likely prevent the resurrection of a full-blown war between the North and the South, a destabilized state plagued with proxy tribal conflicts and North-South border wars is an easily foreseeable possibility that policy makers need to begin adequately preparing for right now.
US officials plan to soon announce the conclusions of the Obama administration’s policy review on Sudan.
But while Van der Lijn sees the US as the most supportive key international player for a potential independent southern Sudan, the top US diplomat to the nation is receiving a battering both back home and from Sudanese opposition leaders for allegedly being too friendly with the Khartoum regime.
US-based Darfur advocacy groups released a statement bashing the US special envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, for comments published earlier this week in which he expressed optimism that the Khartoum government would respond positively to thawed relations from Washington.
In the eyes of Van der Lijn, the softer approach towards the North’s NCP taken by Gration has been a welcome shift.
“The more confrontational you are in your policy towards Khartoum, the less effect you will have,” said Van der Lijn. “So, the change of policy right now in the US is a positive one, I would argue, if you want to have some influence over Khartoum.”
Pic: South Sudan troop