How unstable is oil production in Libya?

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After a relatively stable spell, Libya’s oil production seesawed because of a stand-off at eastern export terminals and the abduction of two workers at Sharara oilfield.

Military clashes followed by a political power struggle forced the National Oil Corporation (NOC) to halt exports at Ras Lanuf, Es Sider, Zueitina and Hariga terminals in late June and early July, threatening to keep as much as 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) offline.

The ports reopened on July 11 and eastern fields gradually resumed operations. A lengthy shutdown at El Feel oilfield also ended, but two days later output at the nearby 300,000 bpd Sharara was slashed after two staff were kidnapped.

National production was hovering around a million bpd for more than a year and reached 1.28 million bpd in February, with most recent shutdowns resolved in days or weeks.

The risk of further output shocks lingers while Libya remains politically and militarily divided.

WHAT IS LIBYA’S POTENTIAL?

Libya has the largest proven reserves of oil in Africa and has been a supplier of key light, sweet crude.

Around 1970 it produced more than three million bpd and before the NATO-backed uprising in which Muammar Gaddafi was toppled and killed seven years ago, it was pumping over 1.6 million.

Last year the NOC outlined plans to raise production to 2.2 million bpd by 2023, but said this would need around $18 billion of investment.

Foreign oil companies including Italy’s Eni, Total of France, Austria’s OMV and US firms ConocoPhillips and Hess have production stakes through joint ventures with the NOC.

WHY DID OUTPUT DROP AFTER 2011?

Since the 2011 uprising, rival groups used oil facilities as bargaining chips to press financial and political demands.

Power is split between shifting armed factions in the east and west, aligned with competing administrations.

They and other groups cut off production at fields and ports, including a blockade of terminals in Libya’s eastern oil crescent from 2013-2016. Prolonged shutdowns reduced pressure at wells.

As Libya’s revenue fell due to production disruptions and lower oil prices, demands for salaries, local development and jobs became more widespread.

Groups including Islamist militants attacked and fought over oilfields and ports. Most storage tanks at two major terminals, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, were damaged or destroyed. Fields including Mabruk and Ghani remain closed.

A lack of funding is an additional drag on ageing infrastructure and regular power outages are a further constraint.

International companies have a limited presence onshore, putting exploration and development programmes mostly on hold.

WHAT ARE THE CURRENT RISKS?

Reasons for shutdowns include economic protests by local groups pushing for cash or the release of jailed fighters, which affect ports, major fields and parts of the pipeline network.

The Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) whose job is to protect oil installations often holds local agendas and loyalties. Guards shut down the 70,000-bpd El Feel field this year for more than four months.

Security is volatile. Militants including some linked to Islamic State are present in desert areas and carry out attacks near facilities or fields in the Sirte basin.

Risk is also linked to Libya’s domestic conflict.

In mid-June, a former PFG commander who earlier led port blockades gathered opponents of eastern-based military chief Khalifa Haftar along with mercenaries to attack Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, held by Haftar’s forces since 2016.

After the assault was repelled, Haftar and his allies said they would take control of most of Libya’s oil through a parallel NOC in Benghazi, complaining too much revenue flowing through the central bank in Tripoli was passing to their rivals.

The stand-off was resolved with a promise to look into central bank spending and a sanctions threat against those trying to bypass the internationally recognised NOC.

The internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, which announced the investigation into spending, lacks authority.

Meanwhile UN-led efforts to unify eastern and western factions show little visible progress and plans for elections this year are uncertain.



Along with Nigeria, Libya is exempted from OPEC-led production cuts designed to bolster prices. Both signalled intentions to raise output.