The recently published Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook sheds light on the worrying current state of the global nuclear arsenal.
Russia and the USA possess nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, with their military stockpiles showing stability in 2023 despite Russia deploying about 36 more operational warheads since January 2023. Transparency on nuclear forces has decreased in both countries post-Russia’s Ukraine invasion, leading to increased discussions on nuclear-sharing arrangements.
In 2023, the nine nuclear-armed states—United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued to upgrade their nuclear arsenals and introduced new nuclear-armed or capable weapon systems, SIPRI found. As of January 2024, out of an estimated global inventory of 12 121 warheads, approximately 9 585 were in military stockpiles. Around 2 100 of these deployed warheads were on high alert status, mostly in Russia and the USA, though China is now also reported to have warheads on high alert for the first time.
SIPRI’s estimate shows China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, with indications of deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime for the first time.
Hans M Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, stated that “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. In February 2023, Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the USA, prompting a reciprocal halt in treaty data sharing by the USA.”
Later in November, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing concerns over US non-ratification since 1996, though it pledged to remain a signatory and cooperate with the CTBTO. Amid tensions over Ukraine, Russia has made nuclear threats and conducted tactical nuclear weapon drills near the Ukrainian border in May 2024.
In 2023, France continued advancing its third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and developing a new air-launched cruise missile, while India expanded its nuclear arsenal slightly and, along with Pakistan, progressed in developing new nuclear delivery systems.
However, the most concerning changes regard North Korea, which maintained its military nuclear programme as a core national security strategy. It amassed an estimated 50 warheads and enough fissile material for up to 90 warheads, with developments in ballistic and cruise missile technologies aimed at nuclear delivery.
Matt Korda, Associate Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Senior Research Fellow for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, shared concern that “North Korea might intend to use these weapons very early in a conflict.”
Dan Smith, SIPRI Director, warned about the increased instability in conflicts around the world. “We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history. There are numerous sources of instability—political rivalries, economic inequalities, ecological disruption, an accelerating arms race.” The Ukraine and Gaza wars notably have contributed to the weakening of nuclear diplomacy.
Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty in February 2023, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the USA, which resulted in a reciprocal halt in treaty data sharing by the USA. Later in November, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and has made nuclear threats and conducted tactical nuclear weapon drills near the Ukrainian border in May 2024.
On a positive note, China and the USA have agreed to resume military-to-military communication following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s June 2023 visit to Beijing.
Written by ADIT – The Bulletin and republished with permission.
