The worldwide market for light tracked vehicles will be worth US$19.7 billion through 2021, covering nearly 9 300 units, according to Forecast International. This is down from the company’s earlier estimate of 10 200 units over the next decade.
In its annual analysis “The Market for Light Tracked Vehicles,” the Forecast International Weapons Group said that the international market for light tracked vehicles remains a highly competitive and dynamic environment.
Dean Lockwood, weapons systems analyst at Forecast International, notes that in terms of sheer numbers, China’s Type 90 armoured personnel carrier (APC) and Type 90 mechanized infantry combat vehicle (MICV) represent the most significant light tracked vehicle production run of the forecast period.
As the People’s Liberation Army standardizes its mechanized forces around the Type 90 APC and MICV, Forecast International expects that combined production of these two vehicles will account for about 41% of all new light tracked vehicle production worldwide, worth some 9% of the market, through 2021.
Meanwhile, new production of the top high-end vehicle – the Igel/Puma – will account for only 10.9% of all production through the forecast period. Yet, Lockwood states, “We estimate this programme will own 59.5% of the total value of the light tracked vehicle market through 2021.”
“For most nations, the expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end light tracked vehicles pales in comparison with the prospect of new procurement.”
The ongoing U.S. Army investment in the maintenance and upgrade of the existing Bradley fleet through FY17 is now equivalent to only 5% of the value of all new-production light tracked vehicles scheduled to roll out worldwide through 2021. “While transparent to this market analysis, maintenance of the existing Bradley Fighting Vehicle fleet in U.S. Army service is still effectively the sixth most valuable light tracked vehicle program on the international market,” Lockwood said.
Although the light tracked vehicles in service today are all products of the Cold War, Lockwood says that they are far from relics destined for the scrap heap. “Since the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) executed its ‘Thunder Run’ to Baghdad in 2003, the light tracked vehicle has soldiered on as a significant force multiplier on the modern asymmetric battlefield,” he said.
Late last year Forecast International said that the light tracked vehicle market was expected to produce nearly 10 200 units, worth more than US$20.9 billion, through 2020.