IQPC has released its market report on armoured vehicles for 2014. In this document, authors Andrew Elwel and Richard de Silva assess 2013 spending and forecast the market at $12.61 billion with a stable outlook until 2021.
Referring to Frost & Sullivan’s analysis and forecast, the document shows that “much of the growth is being driven by countries in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East and those others with a strong need to replace their cold war era systems”. Meanwhile, North America and Europe are going to focus on acquisitions to maintain existing capabilities.
In terms of production unit numbers, the analysts estimate that this will increase from 408,639 vehicles in 2012 to 418,109 by the end of 2021. According to Army Technology and Strategic Defense Intelligence analysis, the global armoured vehicles MRO market is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.68% to reach $7.1 billion by 2022, driven by factors such as aging military equipment, and internal and external security threats. According to Forecast International, armoured wheeled logistics vehicles represent the highest volume of production.
Demand for blast-resistant/mine-protected vehicles is skyrocketing, with an estimated cumulative market value from 2012 – 2021 of $265 billion.
Homeland security and border protection are driving modernization programmes and opening potential market development in regions such as the Middle East, Asia and Latin America.
“However, it should be noted that these emerging markets are perhaps not truly emerging anymore, but have instead been spending in this area for some years now and are firmly established in many aspects. India retains its position as the most targeted market, but investment into the market is on the decrease”.
African markets appear to have a high potential and are expected to grow in the coming years. According to the industry analysts “African governments are expected to spend $20 billion on armoured vehicles in the coming decade with Algeria being the biggest spender”.
At a global scale, light and medium-weight vehicles will be most in demand. Even if IED and blast protection are still considered to be a critical technology and that reliability of these systems has been enhanced, the progressive drawdown in regions where they are the most useful brings uncertainty on future needs which represents a threat to the MRAP market.
According to Forecast International, 8,400 light tracked vehicles and 18,634 light wheeled vehicles will be globally produced from 2013-2022, which represents a value of respectively $18.1 billion and $8.4 billion, meanwhile there will be a production of 5,200 main battle tanks worth $23.3 billion over the same period.
Due to sequestration and budget cuts, affordability is going to be one of the key drivers for procurement managers. Aside to financial pressures, the majority of the industry sees working cohesively with governments as its most significant challenge.
Some technologies are being explored to be implemented soon on future platforms. While some of these technologies seem to be straight out of science fiction novels, their progress needs to be monitored as it could influence future developments.
The idea of using lasers and directed energy weapons seems to be no longer science fiction. Even if solutions are in R&D stages, electronic weapons may appear a viable alternative in the future. Boeing’s “Laser Avenger” system was the first to ever shoot down a UAV with directed energy and could be operational within a year. The technology has ground force capabilities too as it can be used to destroy IEDs.
Force-fields are also a path being developed including at the UK R&D centre, the Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) which is working on supercapacitors in armour that will turn a vehicle into a giant battery. This electric armour could be a valuable asset in addition to basic protection. Developments on this domain could be available in many different features such as countermeasures.
Written by ADIT – The Bulletin and republished with permission.