Global nuclear power capacity will rise by nearly 70 percent in the next 20 years, despite a turn in sentiment following the Fukushima crisis, driven by demand in mainly Asian countries, the World Nuclear Association said in a report.
“It is clear that nuclear prospects in Germany and Japan have been damaged by Fukushima, but the prospects for new reactor build continue to be strong in China, India, Korea and the United Kingdom,” the body said in its nuclear fuel report, which is published every two years and was released on Thursday.
Installed nuclear capacity is expected to grow to 614 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 from 364 GW currently, Reuters reports.
China is forecast to see the strongest growth level, with capacity rising to 136 GW in 2030, 13 times its current capacity.
“A remarkable feature is that work is commencing on third and fourth units at several sites, immediately after the initial two units, with sites anticipated eventually to take six or more reactors,” the WNA said.
“The Chinese program is huge.”
New build plans for nuclear reactors in western Europe and North America are scarce as electricity demand growth is forecast to be muted.
At the same time the cost of building new nuclear plants has become less competitive in comparison with new gas plants, for example, the study said. European and North American gas prices have been important in determining whether building nuclear plants is competitive.
“The sudden appearance of unconventional gas supplies in the United States and elsewhere has posed an additional economic challenge to new nuclear build,” the WNA said.
The surge in installed nuclear capacity by 2030 will also spur a 70 percent rise in demand for uranium, which is used to fuel nuclear reactors.
Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan are the world’s top three uranium reserve holders, WNA data showed, and most likely to benefit from rising demand.
