Analysis – Tunisia unrest may loosen leader’s grip on power

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An outbreak of violent unrest in Tunisia has punctured a taboo on challenging President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in public, a change that could weaken his tight grip on power.

A combination of deploying the military on the streets and concessions to protesters may allow the authorities to contain the violence, but in the longer-term they could struggle to dominate the country in the way they have done up to now.
“The protests will mark a watershed in the political life of the Ben Ali regime,” said political risk consultancy firm Oxford Analytica. “The unrest will breathe new life into society and embolden popular calls for change.”

What is still lacking though is any clarity about what form that change could take: Tunisia has a weak and divided opposition and no figure has emerged who could channel the unhappiness into concerted political action, Reuters reports.

The real effects of the unrest, Ben Ali’s opponents believe, could make themselves felt in 2014 when he must either step down or seek a change in the constitution to allow him to run for a sixth term in office.

Tunisia’s government says it is committed to democracy and respects freedom of expression. It says too that Ben Ali, 74, is popular and credited with turning his country into one of the most stable and prosperous in the region.
“The Tunisian government is not at its end but it is building and listening to young people,” Bechit Tekkari, a government minister, told Arabic news channel Al Jazeera.

For years the only place public dissent could be heard about Ben Ali’s rule was in Tunisian diaspora communities abroad, the foreign media or in corners of the Internet.

People avoid speaking openly in public places in case an informer or plain clothes police officer is eavesdropping.

Local media heap lavish praise on the president and his wife, and opposition parties who are prepared to criticise the government do not have seats in the deferential parliament.

Copies of French newspapers delivered to Tunis often have pages missing where censors have removed articles that could irritate the government, residents say.

SLOGANS

The protests, which broke out in December when an unemployed man set fire to himself in the town of Sidi Bouzid and have since claimed the lives of dozens, have not swept those restrictions away, but they have dented them.

As the unrest gathered momentum slogans relating to Ben Ali started appearing alongside those about unemployment and living conditions.

A witness in Sidi Bouzid told Reuters Thursday that thousands of people has gathered for a new protest. “All the slogans are against Ben Ali,” he said by telephone.



Amateur footage of a group of people burning a portrait of Ben Ali — posters with his image hang in every shop and public building and on billboards in the street — has been widely circulated on online social networks used by young Tunisians.