Subtle trends at AAD 2024

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The African Aerospace & Defence (AAD) exhibition took place between 18 and 22 September 2024 at Air Force Base Waterkloof outside Pretoria. The expo was well organised and success all round for all who participated.

AAD 2024 indicates a few subtle changes that can be indicative of trends into the future. The most impressive change is the increased visibility and involvement of government decision makers. In AADs of the past it was expected that the Minister of Defence & Military Veterans (MoDMV) would make a fleeting visit to the opening ceremony. AAD 2022 saw the involvement increase slightly with a short visit by the then Minister of Public Enterprises to inspect Denel’s stand, and a visit by the Minister of Police. 2024 has seen a change in involvement by government. The MoDMV and both deputies were significantly visible.

The Parliamentary Committee on Defence and Military Veterans visited AAD 2024. Various other ministries also attended. The biggest change for the aerospace and defence sector is that the President of South Africa visited AAD and interacted with exhibitors. This indicates positive potential into the future. The departing tongue-in-cheek comment made by the president that the Minister of Finance should visit maybe indicates a changing stance on funding for re-equipping South Africa’s defence capabilities. Hopefully with a large component of local products.

It was noticeable on the local defence industry front that there is an increased level of co-operation between companies. There was a rise in displays that highlighted multiple products integrated into product systems. This shows that the South African defence industry (SADI) system integrator pool is increasing. This has significant benefit for the country. There is now a pool of suppliers that can bring complex systems to market. The integration companies could be seen promoting product capabilities of partners. The downside of this is that these partners did not have an independent presence at the show.

It does seem as though there was a slight reduction in the number of exhibitors. AAD still needs to release the final participation figures. The perception of reduced exhibitor numbers has been constant over the last four to five AAD expos. The AADs in the early 2010s filled six full hangers with exhibitors. We have reduced to exhibitors that could fill a maximum four hangers. The size of AAD is maintained with exhibitors distributed over more hangers and the flightline apron, but the amount still seems smaller.

Local new developments were limited. The new developments that were launched did give good food for thought, and there are some vibrant sectors in the South African defence industry (SADI). The drone/unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sector is robust. This is seen in companies presenting solutions. The Milkor 380 UAV was a stand out, but not to be outdone, Denel presented a new rotary wing medium lift UAV solution with significant potential. Smaller companies like Avior Labs and newcomer ShadowfaxUAS released new offerings at AAD.

The international presence shift was very noticeable, with a sizable increase in BRICS and other Global South solution participants. This trend has been increasing over several AAD events. The significant factor to be noted is that the products on display can no longer be seen as second-rate products. The capabilities on display by this group of participants shows that there is a growing defence related design and development capability internationally.

 One aspect experienced with the change in global defence exhibitors is that the foreign stands were not approachable by non-delegation elements. People manning the stands were not interested in engaging walk-on questions. Maybe the language barrier is a major issue. This could be easily addressed for future exhibitions. However, this may be more that there is a laser focus on unlocking business, and this is achieved through the formal delegation interactions only. There seems to be limited opportunity for smaller SADI members to engage in integrated projects with these international entities.

The lack of a US military presence was expected based on political issues but the lack of US company exhibitors was noticeable. The reduction in participation by the US was matched by EU and UK companies. Many things can be read into this trend, but the major element is that companies from these countries do not see the possibility of unlocking business on the African continent. AAD is not just for South Africa, but it is one of few opportunities for sub-Saharan countries to engage with defence equipment suppliers on the continent.

Congratulations to defenceWeb for keeping everyone informed with the daily magazines. This is a positive trend that should be kept into the future.

Lastly, there is a noticeable change in energy in the South African defence industry. Let’s hope it translates to local business into the future.

Well done Team AAD Expo.

Written by James Kerr, Orion Consulting CC, which provides Market Entry Strategy and Bid & Proposal services to the Aerospace & Defence related industry and assists international SME mission system product suppliers to gain traction in South Africa.