Media headlines and social media have in recent months and days been trumpeting major Police, Crime Intelligence (CI) and Asset Forfeiture Unit successes across a number of interlinked illicit economies, including narcotics, scrap metal, copper, gold and coal.
But do the headlines reflect real change within CI, or is SA Police Service (SAPS) reputation management only far in advance of the lived reality of most South Africans?
Only a few short months ago the media and public discourse narrative on CI and SAPS was overwhelmingly dominated by seemingly terminal decline, corruption and an organisation which could not even foresee mega-disasters such as the July 2021 uprisings which killed hundreds.
With organised crime a real existential threat to South Africa, CI remains the primary barometer of intelligence efficacy, cross-cutting South Africa’s growing security cluster, with the Border Management Authority (BMA) a new addition and increasing SA Army involvement in crime fighting demanding ever-more intelligence.
defenceWeb delved into the opaque world of CI operations and found several indicators of change both internally and operationally, both nationally and especially in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), a crucible of organised crime and assassinations.
Ports of entry and exit to and from South Africa often are the common denominator in massified bulk criminal ecosystems and indeed the choke-point in the journey of most illicit substances and materials exported under cover of and interspersed with legal trade and documentation.
For the bulk of South Africa’s inland organised illicit economies, most routes lead to KZN – and ports Durban and Richards Bay, the primary illicit coal export point – and thus serve as a major CI battleground and litmus test of the organisation’s present overall purpose-fit and efficacy.
“There is definitely a growing sense of urgency within SAPS nationally and specifically within CI with major structural changes and new energy noticeable within especially KZN,” said General George Fivaz, a former National Commissioner of SAPS and now forensics company owner.
Marked improvements in performance by Crime Intelligence seem concentrated – but not exclusively – around the ports of KZN and their access routes, where concerted effort is seemingly under way by SAPS to restore full functionality, notes the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
Ironically, South Africa’s long-standing and worsening transport crisis with Transnet and especially a clogged Durban Harbour, seems to be giving Crime Intelligence a breathing-space to catch up with usually-agile criminal networks always steps ahead.
Added to this is the massive boost given CI and other law enforcement agencies and special units by the business-funded Eskom intelligence operation conducted by Fivaz and his company GFFR, which in 2022 and early 2023 uncovered many underground crime ecosystems overlapping almost every facet of organised crime throughout the country.
This intelligence was also central to the recent seizures across Mpumalanga by the Asset Forfeiture Unit and the SAPS Special Illegal Mining Unit of suspected organised crime assets of R1.5 billion, including a farm, stockpiles of stolen coal and machinery including heavy duty equipment.
The vast treasure-trove of GFFR intelligence has now ignited CI, the Hawks and even the renowned Special Investigation Unit (SIU) and other agencies in a big way, even sparking interest from policing intelligence agencies across the globe, said Fivaz.
But until the headlines scream convictions in Courts-of-Law, rather than only arrests and seizures, there can be no sustainable indicators of meaningful change at CI, said ISS-based expert Willie Els.
“There are definitely signs that great efforts are being made in the SAPS to revitalise and restructure CI especially in KZN. Major successes announced regularly by police against organised crime may be a strong indication for cautious optimism that CI is turning the corner,” Els said.
“Credit must be given to Police Minister Bheki Cele and National Commissioner Fanie Masemola for this drive, they have clearly been hard at work cleaning up CI. But can SAPS and CI turn arrests into solid cases and convictions in Court on a regular basis? That is the real question and the true test of success,” Els emphasised.
Various other actors are raising questions in the security establishment and private security/intelligence industry on whether CI organisation may not at least even partially be turning the corner from entrenched incompetence, corruption and a dismal reputation.
If increasing and growing success have indeed been achieved, however unevenly, this would still reflect significant strides in competency, fighting endemic internal corruption and criminal penetration of CI structures, operational intelligence assets told defenceWeb.
“Of course CI still has a way to go and there is admittedly still scepticism but simultaneously we must recognise that there is room for cautious optimism that they are turning the corner. Sustainability especially in convictions in court will be decisive,” said Fivaz.
