The regional aircraft market is stabilizing following a period of several years of erratic swings in yearly production, according to a new study, which projects that 3 817 regional aircraft valued at $135.2 billion will be produced from 2016 through 2025.
This total includes both regional jets and regional turboprop airliners, according to the new Forecast International study on “The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft”. Forecast International predicts that annual output will remain relatively flat in 2016 and 2017 at just over 340 units each year. The longer-term outlook, though, is more bullish, as annual production is projected to reach more than 420 units by the year 2025.
This growth will be fuelled by the production ramp-ups of such new regional jetliner models as the Bombardier CS100, the Embraer E2 family, and the Mitsubishi MRJ90. According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “Overall demand in the regional jet market is already moving toward larger-capacity aircraft, but the overall potential of the segment continues to be hampered by scope clause restrictions in the U.S. market.”
The persistence of low fuel prices has started to impact the turboprop market, softening demand for these fuel-efficient aircraft. Oil prices have increased somewhat since early 2016, though, and can be expected to continue to gradually rise, thus helping to buoy this segment of the regional aircraft market.
The Forecast International study also includes manufacturer market share projections. Based on unit production, Embraer, ATR, Bombardier, and Mitsubishi are projected to be the leading regional aircraft manufacturers during the 2016-2025 forecast period. Embraer is projected to build 959 regional jetliners during the timeframe. ATR is expected to produce 783 regional turboprops. Bombardier, which produces both jets and turboprops, is forecast to build 591 regional aircraft. Mitsubishi is projected to produce 437 regional jets.