On Oct 20, during the Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (NBAA 2013) in Las Vegas, Honeywell released its 22nd annual Business Aviation Outlook. To make this report, 1,500 flight departments around the world were contacted. This outlook forecasts 9,250 new business jet deliveries between 2013 and 2022, i.e. $250 billion in value, of which 55% will be large cabin jets.
On that point, Honeywell explains that operators are looking for large jets with high ceiling (45,000-50,000ft), fast cruise speed (Mach 0.85) and extended range (4,000-8,000 nm). Among the interviewees, 30% of them declare that their fleet is slated for replacement or expansion with a new jet during the next 5 years. Among them, 20% say they will do so by 2013 and another 20% during 2014-2015.
It is to be noted that while fewer aircraft were delivered this year than in 2012 (620 vs. 750), the value of shipments is up 4%. On the regional ground, it appears that USA will remain, beyond dispute, the world’s No.1 market with 61% of the market share during the period. Altogether, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries will account for 42%, which is 2% less than in the 2012 survey. The report states that “together, the emerging market results from BRIC countries reflect a slight tempering of enthusiasms compared to a year ago.”
In the next 5 years, Europe will only account for 12% of new deliveries, down 6% compared to the previous forecast. As underlined, “the resilience previously shown by European operators in the face of lackluster economic conditions may have reached the point of fatigue with weak growth prospects expected for 2014.”
On the long run, fleet operators in the Asia Pacific region plan to acquire new jets equivalent to 24% of their current fleet, down 10% compared to 2012. Concerning Africa and the Middle East, over the next 5 years, the share of the global demand attributed to those regions “moved toward the lower side of its historical 4 -7 % range this year.”
Finally, as far as the aftermarket is concerned, 12.5% of today’s fleet is for sale. Back in 2009, this figure was 16%. Honeywell’s report understands that the younger inventory composes less than 20% of what is for sale.