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Higher defence budgets to boost military rotorcraft market

An AW101.Increased defence spending is set to boost the global medium and heavy military helicopter market, according to a new report, which estimates 6 175 such rotorcraft will be built over the next 15 years.

This production, from 2017 through 2031 for rotorcraft having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb), will be worth an estimated $158.4 billion (in FY17 dollars), according to a new report by Forecast International.

Global instability is sparking a resurgence in defence spending in several countries. These include the U.S., where the new administration has come to office promising to rebuild the country’s armed forces. In a number of nations, higher defence budgets are likely to result in the acceleration of certain fleet modernization plans, Forecast International said.

In the U.S., the effect on rotorcraft acquisition could be a bit more muted, as the U.S. military rotorcraft fleet is already several years into its current modernization cycle, and other areas of the defence budget (such as fighter procurement or shipbuilding) may be viewed as higher priorities. Still, annual U.S. procurement lots of military rotorcraft may increase somewhat, even if total program buys remain largely unchanged.

The longer-term outlook for the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market is even more promising. Driving the market in the post-2030 timeframe will be the U.S. military’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) project. The FVL effort involves development of a new rotorcraft family to meet future U.S. attack, scout, and utility rotorcraft needs, Forecast International said.

Current U.S. Army thinking on the FVL project involves selection of a different platform to meet each of five different FVL categories or Capability Sets. This opens the door to the FVL program possibly generating multiple opportunities for rotorcraft manufacturers. And the various FVL models can be expected to garner sizable orders not only from the U.S. military, but also from export customers.

In terms of manufacturer market shares, Russian Helicopters is projected to lead the market in unit production during the 2017-2031 timeframe, followed by Sikorsky, Avicopter of China, Boeing, Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), and NH Industries. The Russian consortium’s number one position is bolstered by substantial production of its popular Mi-8/17 line of multirole helicopters.

When the market is measured in terms of monetary value, the 15-year projections show Sikorsky in the lead, followed by Russian Helicopters, Boeing, NH Industries, the Bell/Boeing V-22 partnership, and Avicopter.